By Oxana Bordian
Vice-Chair and International Secretary, PAS Youth
On 20 October 2024, the Republic of Moldova held two historic votes—a presidential election and a crucial referendum on the country’s direction toward European integration. Over 1.55 million Moldovan citizens participated, marking a record voter turnout of 51.5%. This significant level of engagement surpassed the turnout seen in the first round of the 2020 presidential elections, which was 48.54%, signifying the importance of this year’s vote in determining Moldova’s future.
The Referendum: Moldova’s Path Toward the European Union
The referendum asked Moldovan citizens whether they supported amending the constitution to enshrine the country’s pursuit of European Union membership. In a closely watched vote, the referendum passed by the slimmest of margins—just 50.39% of voters cast their ballots in favor, according to the Central Electoral Commission. This narrow victory revealed deep divisions in Moldovan society but nonetheless marked a critical step toward breaking away from over a century of Russian influence and securing a future within the EU.
Despite the slim margin, the passage of the referendum is seen as a significant win for pro-European forces in the country, particularly for President Maia Sandu. The result reflects Moldova’s desire to move closer to Europe and away from Russia’s sphere of influence. However, the narrow victory also underscores the challenges ahead in uniting the nation around this historic decision. The referendum shows how every vote matters in a democracy, especially when it comes to defining the future course of the nation.
In addition to the referendum, Moldova also held the first round of its presidential election. Pro-European reformer Maia Sandu, who has led efforts to bring Moldova closer to the EU, received 42.45% of the vote. Her main opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is seen as representing the more pro-Russian factions of Moldovan politics, secured 25.98%. With neither candidate achieving the required 50% to win outright, the election will now proceed to a second round on 3 November.
The upcoming run-off is expected to be fiercely contested, with both candidates seeking to draw support from other first-round contenders. Sandu’s platform is rooted in continuing her pro-European reforms, fighting corruption, and pushing for Moldova’s eventual accession to the European Union. Stoianoglo, in contrast, is likely to appeal to voters who favor maintaining closer ties with Russia.
Russia’s Ongoing Interference: A Shadow Over the Election
The 2024 elections in Moldova have been marked by persistent interference from Russia, which has long sought to maintain its influence over the country. President Sandu has accused Russia of orchestrating a wide-ranging campaign to undermine the election and the referendum. These efforts included vote buying, disinformation campaigns, and cyberattacks aimed at disrupting the electoral process and eroding public trust in Moldova’s pro-European path.
“There is clear evidence that criminal groups, working with foreign forces hostile to Moldova’s interests, sought to buy 300,000 votes,” Sandu stated following the first round. Moldovan police have linked these efforts to networks connected to Ilan Șor, a fugitive politician with ties to Moscow. Authorities traced illicit payments to over 130,000 voters, reportedly part of a $15 million vote-buying scheme aimed at swaying support toward pro-Russian candidates and encouraging a “No” vote in the referendum.
Despite these efforts, Moldovan authorities managed to safeguard the overall integrity of the election, though the scale of interference has raised alarms both domestically and internationally. The run-off election in November will be a key test of Moldova’s democratic resilience in the face of ongoing external pressure.
One of the most promising aspects of this year’s election was the notable participation of Moldova’s youth. According to data from the Central Electoral Commission, 126,287 individuals aged between 18 and 25 cast their votes, representing 8.08% of the total electorate. This translates to a youth voter turnout of 46.69%, a significant figure that highlights the growing political engagement of Moldova’s younger generation.
The increased involvement of young voters indicates a shift in Moldovan politics, with the younger generation increasingly playing a crucial role in determining the nation’s direction, particularly in favor of European integration. Their active participation is a promising sign for the future of Moldovan democracy.
European Reactions: Support for Moldova’s European Aspirations
The international response to Moldova’s elections has been one of strong support, particularly from the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the resilience of both the Moldovan people and President Maia Sandu in the face of external interference: “Congratulations to the people of Moldova and to you, Maia Sandu. In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, strong, and has a European future!”
Similarly, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola applauded Moldova’s courage, stating: “Bravo, Moldova. Thank you for your courage! Thank you, Maia Sandu, for your leadership, which is changing the course of history. Our future is together.”
These endorsements underscore the broader geopolitical stakes of Moldova’s elections. European leaders have emphasized their commitment to supporting Moldova on its path toward EU membership, despite Russia’s persistent efforts to derail the process.
Romanian MEP Siegfried Mureșan, chair of the European Parliament’s liaison committee on Moldova’s EU accession process, declared the passage of the referendum a “victory for the people of the Republic of Moldova and a defeat for Russia.” Mureșan pledged that the EU would continue to stand by Moldova in its pursuit of European integration.
What to expect in the run-off election
The second round of the presidential election on 3 November will be a defining moment for Moldova. Maia Sandu’s campaign will focus on continuing her reforms, fighting corruption, and strengthening Moldova’s ties to the European Union. Alexandr Stoianoglo, on the other hand, will appeal to voters who fear that closer ties with the West could alienate Moldova from its traditional connections to Russia.
The electoral environment remains tense, with the possibility of further interference from Russia hanging over the run-off. While Sandu has a lead, the outcome is far from certain, and Stoianoglo’s support from pro-Russian voters could make the election highly competitive.
Conclusion: Every vote counts
As Moldova moves toward the second round of its presidential election, it is clear that every vote truly counts. The narrow victory in the referendum is a reminder of the power each voter holds in shaping the country’s future. Moldova’s democracy, though fragile, has withstood significant challenges, including foreign interference and deep internal divisions.
The results of the upcoming election will determine Moldova’s geopolitical path for years to come—whether it moves closer to European integration or reverts to its historical ties with Russia. The resilience of Moldova’s democratic institutions, combined with the active participation of its citizens—especially the younger generation—will be crucial in deciding the nation’s future.
Moldova’s 2024 elections demonstrate that in a democracy, every vote is essential, and the decisions made at the ballot box can have profound consequences for the country’s direction. All eyes are now on 3 November, as Moldova prepares for a run-off that will determine the course of its future.